Change is here. But is it the kind you hoped for?

In retrospect, it seems obvious that New Zealand First would never have chosen National. Now forward-looking Labour and Greens will need to learn to work with a party that would love to turn the clock back 40 years, writes Morgan Godfery. There are only two kinds of politicians, insiders and outsiders, and then there’s Winston … Read more

David Seymour: What I learned this election

ACT’s party vote dropped to a record low of 0.5% this election, and leader David Seymour will again be ACT’s sole representative in parliament. So is there still a place for a right-wing, classically liberal party in New Zealand? Somewhat unsurprisingly, Seymour argues there is. The Spinoff asked me to write a sober reflection on … Read more

No to elections: maybe we should only have them every four years?

We are all over it, aren’t we, this election that won’t quit. But is it also bad for business? Kirk Hope of BusinessNZ asks whether a longer cycle between voting would be better for all of us. The last time New Zealand had a full debate about the pros and cons of a three-year parliamentary … Read more

O, We Wait! (A very short roundup of the state of negotiations)

Just a collection of concluding sentences in recent political commentary. The last week or two have been an ordeal for people tasked with covering party politics. As New Zealand First’s negotiating team has shuttled between the National and Labour suitors, lips have remained uncommonly sealed, and there hasn’t been an awful lot to, well, say. … Read more

Four big reasons why National should not lead the next government. And four why it should

As we await the puffs of white smoke from the Beehive, Simon Wilson offers the compelling arguments that National is unfit for office – and those that suggest they could still be a better option. Why National is unfit for office, reason #1: They lied to us It went like this. Policy analyst: Guys guys. … Read more

We’re looking at a Greens-National deal from the wrong direction

All eyes are on Winston, but still there’s a clamour for a National-Greens coalition. Simon Wilson looks at why the idea has such appeal and what it might mean for politics in this country. It’s like when your parents say they really like your music. Only they wish the words were a little easier to … Read more

How coalitions are made (and destroyed)

Wayne Mapp was there at the first MMP coalition negotiations in 1996, and watched from both government and opposition as subsequent deals were assembled. The former National cabinet minister writes about those years, and what the key dynamics will be in the coming days. In business and politics relationships are built on trust, just as … Read more

2017 was both a change election and a vote for the status quo

Yesterday Massey University’s Claire Robinson argued against this being a change election with reference to prior results. Here the University of Otago’s Andrew Geddis suggests that these endless circular arguments are simply in the eye of the beholder. Have a look at this picture of Rubin’s vase and see what you see: is it two … Read more

Is there room for two Green parties in parliament?

The speculation about a Greens-National coalition is futile given the tribalism of New Zealand politics, writes former National cabinet minister Wayne Mapp. Instead, he wonders if a revitalised TOP can become a second, centrist Green party. All the discussion about a possible National/Green coalition reminded me just how much political parties are tribes. They are … Read more

Group think: Which way will Winston leap?

As a nation awaits NZ First leader Winston Peters’ decision on which major party to support in government, we asked a gang of political experts and insiders for their predictions. Steve Braunias Which way do you think Winston will leap on October 12 or thereabouts? National. Why? Partly because he merely has contempt for ACT … Read more

Nandor Tanczos: the Greens need to figure out a way to talk to National

Former Green MP Nandor Tanczos writes that while it would be unconscionable to go with National now, the Greens need to prepare for a future where that’s on the table. This originally ran on his own blog, Monkeywrenching. There is a lot of talk in the media and in the public at the moment about the … Read more

Inside the campaigns: how the Greens survived Jacindamania

Novelist Danyl Mclauchlan describes his experiences and processes his thoughts after working on the Greens campaign in election 2017. I had a bit to do with the Green Party campaign this election, which was a hell of a thing to experience close-up. (And my views here are mine not those of the Greens, and possibly … Read more

How did Labour’s immigration stance impact its immigrant vote?

Did Labour’s anti-immigration stance prevent it winning the 2017 election? Branko Marcetic crunches the numbers. Immigration was perhaps the issue of 2017. Apparently inspired by the renewed popularity of New Zealand First and by events overseas – if you’re unsure what I’m referring to, quickly Google either “Brexit,” “Trump” or Le “Pen,” and then make … Read more

Interactive: mapping every booth’s votes from the 2017 general election

Chris McDowall has created an extraordinary interactive data-visualisation which shows the party vote results of every single one of the hundreds of voting places in the 2017 general election. He explains his work here – and explore it below. Roughly every three years, New Zealand holds a general election. In the preceding weeks, a small … Read more

Four reasons why Labour could be better off in opposition

Their supporters may not like it, but the smart choice for Labour might be to bow out of coalition negotiations and resign themselves to three more years in opposition. Former National cabinet minister Wayne Mapp explains why.  It is almost always the case that political parties will want to form a government whenever it is … Read more

A better visual breakdown of the 2017 election results

The usual way electoral results maps are presented can be deceiving, overemphasising the relative importance of large but sparsely populated rural areas. Stephen Beban shares his map that more accurately reflects last night’s results. This post was updated on 16 October 2017 to reflect the final vote tallies. If you watched the results on election … Read more

11.18pm: Party Watch – The look in the eyes of the Nats

Election Night 2017: Simon Wilson is at the National Party’s party at Sky City in Auckland. It’s business as usual at Sky City. A bustling Saturday night in the casino, diners coming and going all over Federal St, and in the National Party party, it’s calm confident assurance. This is what they have earned. But … Read more

11.00pm: Bill English wins. Winston Peters loses. And Winston Peters wins

The resurgence of the left has fallen short, as the ruthless final weeks of National’s campaign have them well placed to secure a fourth term. As predicted for months, NZ First will ultimately decide – but the calculus favours the incumbents. The shock resignation of John Key. The whiplash rise of Jacinda Ardern. The rainstorm … Read more

10.03pm: Party Watch – the Greens are getting used to this

Election Night 2017: Simon Wilson reports from the Green Party party in central Auckland. David Farrier is at the Greens and Peter Gordon’s at Labour. Election night party parties attract the celebs, although not as many as you might think. Weirdly, some people find better things to do with their time. At the Green Party … Read more

8.33pm: Party Watch – Meanwhile Labour is having a party

Election Night 2017: Simon Wilson reports (almost) live from the Labour Party victory party/wake. That moment, when Clarke Gayford was standing on the street outside his house, a tray of sausages and tomato sauce in his hands, teatowel over the shoulder. Jacinda called to him from inside. She wants more sauce, someone said. And he … Read more

8.25pm: The most intriguing electorates so far

Election Night 2017: Duncan Greive scrolls down the electorates in play – including some big name potential casualties. So far tonight I have drunk three low alcohol beers and clicked ‘refresh’ on the electorate status page of the election results website approx 1000 times. It’s a very, very bad way to consume the election, please … Read more

7.50pm: A party of five parties beckons with grim early numbers for the Māori Party

Election Night 2017: The Māori Party could be wiped out, if early numbers are a guide. We haven’t nearly enough data yet to be penning the obituary, but the Māori Party has had a bad start to the night. As the below show, the party’s candidates are behind in all the seats they’re contesting. Te … Read more