Toby Manhire 
Earlier this week the Spinoff visited the prime minister at her Auckland home for a wide-ranging interview. So wide-ranging, not all of it made the cut. Below, Jacinda Ardern on Winston Peters, the arts, sexism in politics, Auckland, and Donald Trump Jacinda Ardern on working with Winston Peters “It had always been said to me, … Read more
As she marks six months as Labour leader and embarks on a critical year for her newly formed government, Jacinda Ardern hosts Spinoff editor Toby Manhire at her Auckland home. Mid-morning, Anniversary Monday, and Auckland is melting. “Yesterday, I was trying to write a speech, and it was 31 degrees in the house, and in … Read more
When backbench murmurings about leadership change seep through the media, the flow becomes hellishly difficult to staunch, writes Toby Manhire. To get a sense of the steel behind the caucus murmurings about a change in the leadership of the National Party, consider that they were communicated to Newstalk ZB political editor Barry Soper just in … Read more
Welcome to the Cheat Sheet, a clickable, shareable, bite-sized FAQ on the news of the moment. Today, the geodesic sphere deposited into space from the east coast of the North Island. What’s going on? The Humanity Star is the spinny, shimmering sphere that was zapped the other day into orbit from the Mahia Peninsula, New … Read more
Concerned about the results of an official information request showing an estimated $40,000 being spent dealing with one NZ organisation’s official information demands, the Spinoff seeks comment from public spending grassroots watchdog the Taxpayers’ Union. Not all heroes wear capes, but if there is any justice in this benighted world Jordan Williams has one in … Read more
Three years after she was so dramatically unveiled as leader of Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party, Laila Harré has returned to Labour. In a frank and revealing interview, she tells Toby Manhire what went down in 2014, and why she’s decided to throw her lot back in with the party she first joined 36 years ago. … Read more
The dynamic and polarising Newshub political editor has announced he’s leaving the role. Here are the Interesting and Incisive musings of Toby Manhire, along with an emotional video tribute from José Barbosa. Days-to-go guy. Puffed up little shit in chief. News fucker. Say what you like about Patrick Gower, but he is always – well, … Read more
After a 10-week hiatus, Colmar Brunton’s poll for TVNZ is revealed on Sunday morning, and mobiles are being surveyed alongside landlines for the first time. It seems a long time since those heady days of early spring, when we were drunk on polls. But after the enforced sobriety post-election – well, there was that one … Read more
The Labour PM has her work cut out for her with a pair of senior cabinet ministers hardly given to toeing the line, writes Toby Manhire. Jacinda Ardern spent her Monday morning hosing down the glowing embers across the lawn. No big deal there, particularly: fire-fighting is part and parcel of the breakfast-interview round with … Read more
A startling story that appears to contradict John Key’s 2014 account of the abandonment of a surveillance scheme is a bombshell – and a depressing object lesson in delay tactics and attention spans, writes Toby Manhire. So the saying goes, three years, two months and a couple of weeks is a long time in politics. Back … Read more
The New Zealand PM has dismissed reports that the American president confused her with the Canadian prime minister’s spouse. Such is the torrent of malapropism, muddle and casual offence that flows from the mouth of the US president, it would hardly be a surprise if Donald Trump’s response to seeing Jacinda Ardern at a leaders’ … Read more
Jacinda Ardern has had a busy debut as New Zealand prime minister on the international stage. And so has Jacinta Ardern. Also making a big impact have been Jacinda Arden and Jacinda Adern. Although, come on now, to be fair these are easy mistakes to make. And it’s just the latest in a fine tradition. … Read more
It’s one thing for Winston Peters to snarl and threaten the press as an opposition MP, but taking legal action to force media to reveal their sources as deputy PM is quite another, writes Toby Manhire. Towards the end of the morning, a serious man in a polo shirt appeared at Spinoff headquarters, sweating a … Read more
The long-awaited decision on the National Party’s use of an ‘Eminem-esque’ track in its 2014 election advertising has finally arrived. These are our favourite parts from the judgment. The case of Eight Mile Style vs The National Party has all the makings of a wonderful, epic, hideous hip-hop opera. Even the judge has the perfect … Read more
Jacinda Ardern and Winston Peters yesterday signed an agreement establishing a governing coalition. In the service of democracy and brevity, we’ve chiseled it, roughly, to its core. Read the agreement proper here. Read the digested Labour-Green deal here. Winston Peters and Jacinda Ardern. Photo: Labour Party It’s a coalition but not a bloody merger, get … Read more
The confidence and supply deal that Jacinda Ardern and James Shaw signed yesterday comes in at seven pages, or an appositely sized PDF of 4.20 MB (not kidding). Read the agreement proper here. And read the digested Labour-NZ First coalition deal here. Boiled down, this is pretty much how it goes: The MOU was actually … Read more
Another gold medal for the green-and-gold in the contest for the worst media opinions on New Zealand’s electoral outcome. Toby Manhire reads them so you don’t have to. The latest addition to the pantheon of Bad Takes In The International Media On The New Zealand Election comes from USA Today. In a post explaining how … Read more
Pollwatch: what happens if you factor in NZ First voters’ preferences, asks Toby Manhire. To predict the thinking process of Winston Peters is clearly to skate on thin ice. But what does the most recent polling information tell us about the direction his voters might want to go? With the special votes in, the New … Read more
The resurgence of the left has fallen short, as the ruthless final weeks of National’s campaign have them well placed to secure a fourth term. As predicted for months, NZ First will ultimately decide – but the calculus favours the incumbents. The shock resignation of John Key. The whiplash rise of Jacinda Ardern. The rainstorm … Read more
Election Night 2017: The Māori Party could be wiped out, if early numbers are a guide. We haven’t nearly enough data yet to be penning the obituary, but the Māori Party has had a bad start to the night. As the below show, the party’s candidates are behind in all the seats they’re contesting. Te … Read more
Election Night 2017: What are these early numbers telling us? With 5% of the count in based on advanced vote, the polls look roughly right. This is a big enough sample to say that National is almost certainly going to finish first. They’ll be in a strong position to form a government, whether with NZ … Read more
As we prepare to look at the first results, what clues do we have about young voter numbers? The idea of a youthquake has gained currency across this election, spurred by the evidence that young people appear motivated by Labour leader Jacinda Ardern, talk of a generational tide, and reference to the achievement of Jeremy … Read more
Election Night 2017: The numbers tend to change in the final count. Here’s what we reckon are the thresholds for survival in advanced votes. We’ve been banging on about advance votes and the enrol’n’vote combo offer and special votes for a bit now, but as we await the great democratic sky with our arms outstretched, … Read more
The simple answer: we could know super-fast, and it could take an age. Toby Manhire explains. Much like Bill English’s historic walk-run innovation, the election results will come at two paces: fast, right up in the grill, and slow, almost downright leisurely. But first, the Electoral Commission’s official targets: All advanced vote numbers available by … Read more
Pollwatch: The Newshub poll again shows National with a decent lead, but still suggests it could go either way. Not that kingmaker Winston Peters gives a rat’s arse, obviously. To recap once more: there was Incredibly explosive, then Volatile and telling, then Dramatic and devastating. Tonight’s Paddy poll, conducted by Reid Research for Newshub, was … Read more
Bill English and Steven Joyce’s ruthless strategy appears to be thriving, as the drag race nears the finish line. For a while now, the National Party strategy has been two-pronged. First, scare the living shit out of wavering voters over the economic credibility of the Labour Party. Second, stare sternly at old-school blue voters who … Read more
Five days out from the election, is the Jacinda effect still alive? As farmers protest in Morrinsville amid talk of a rural-urban divide, Toby Manhire joins the Labour leader on the trail in Whanganui. Jacinda Ardern is up the front, in 1C. On a big plane, it’s a posh seat – but there are no … Read more
Pollwatch: Labour continues to thrive and the Memorandum of Understanding lurches back into life, if the numbers in tonight’s Colmar Brunton poll are a guide, writes Toby Manhire The helter-skelter experience of watching the New Zealand election 2017 continues, with the just revealed Colmar Brunton survey for 1News, showing Labour holding its lead over National. … Read more
As the campaign enters its final weekend, Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson have attempted to lance the boil, pledging Labour won’t introduce new tax changes before 2021. Now the attacks will switch from tax to leadership, writes Toby Manhire It was a “captain’s call” to push open the door to significant changes in the tax … Read more